Abbas sends in his men

Jan 21st 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, has sent his security forces to police the Gaza strip, in the hope of curbing militant groups’ attacks on Israeli targets. If successful—a big if—this could pave the way for a broader ceasefire and a revival of the Middle East peace process

SEVERAL thousand Palestinian paramilitary policemen, in green uniforms and red berets and carrying assault rifles, began taking up positions across the northern Gaza strip on Friday January 21st. They were sent in by Mahmoud Abbas, the newly elected president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), to try to deter Islamist militant groups from launching attacks on Israeli soldiers and settlers in the strip. Among the officers’ first actions was to search vehicles heading for the Erez crossing into Israel—a frequent target for suicide bombers. The PA’s forces also took up positions in northern Gaza’s fields, from where militants have regularly launched volleys of rockets, both at the strip’s Jewish settlements and at towns across the border in southern Israel.

The deployment of Palestinian forces is the first such operation since militants launched their intifada (uprising) over four years ago, which prompted Israel to reoccupy areas that it had handed over to the PA under the Oslo peace accords. If the Palestinian security presence succeeds in deterring militants’ attacks, and if Israel responds with concessions, it could pave the way for a broader ceasefire by the various militant groups and, eventually, to a revival of the internationally backed “road map” peace plan. Mr Abbas’s officials agreed the planned deployment with Israeli officials in a meeting on Wednesday—such co-ordination was crucial, so that Israeli troops would not mistakenly open fire on the PA’s forces. On Friday, the launch of the operation was welcomed by Israel’s deputy prime minister, Shimon Peres. Speaking on Israel Radio, he said Mr Abbas’s first steps were “very impressive”.

Israel and its main backer, America, had given up talking to Mr Abbas’s predecessor, Yasser Arafat, over his failure to halt the militants’ attacks. In 2003, Mr Abbas resigned after a short stint as Arafat’s prime minister, partly over his boss’s failure to merge and reform the PA’s 12 rivalrous and disorganised security forces. Unlike Arafat, Mr Abbas appears genuinely to believe that violence is not helping the Palestinian national cause. But many of his compatriots disagree, leaving him with a lot of convincing to do.

There are signs that the new Palestinian leader is preparing to carry out the security reforms that Arafat repeatedly promised but failed to enact. Nevertheless, Mr Abbas has insisted that it is unrealistic for Israel to demand that the PA’s forces confront and disarm the militant groups: such an aggressive approach would only lead to a civil war, he says. Instead, Mr Abbas is trying to use his powers of persuasion—and his mandate from the Palestinian people—to persuade and co-opt the militants.

Will Mr Abbas and his policemen succeed? In the two days leading up to their deployment on Friday, there were no rocket attacks. But it is too early to tell if this really is a sign that Mr Abbas is persuading the militants to hold fire, or whether it was simply a brief lull to mark this week’s Muslim festival of Eid. The situation is fragile. Indeed, last week the tentative revival of the peace process was almost extinguished before it had begun: Ariel Sharon, Israel’s prime minister, briefly suspended all contacts between his government and Mr Abbas’s, following a deadly attack on a border crossing by Palestinian militants. Mr Sharon’s move was partly a response to a domestic outcry about the attack, but it was also a clever tactic: it forced Mr Abbas, basking in international praise for his strong and relatively clean election victory, to jump back to concentrating on Israel’s main concern, its own security. Though Israel is making positive noises about Mr Abbas’s policing operation, it is also threatening a big military crackdown in Gaza if the operation fails to stop the attacks.

Israel has shown some small signs of willingness to make Mr Abbas’s job easier. In late December, in the run-up to the Palestinian election, it let out 159 of the 7,000 or so Palestinian prisoners it holds. And on Friday it partially reopened the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which had been closed since an attack in early December. Egypt, which is helping Mr Abbas’s efforts to arrange a ceasefire, plans to hold a conference with the militants in March. But to get them to agree to a full truce, more Israeli concessions are likely to be needed, including letting out more prisoners and easing restrictions at military checkpoints so that Palestinians can move more freely.

Israel will be reluctant to make too many concessions, however, until formal peace talks are revived. And Mr Sharon is unwilling to start these talks until he has carried out his planned withdrawal of all Israeli troops and settlers from Gaza and part of the West Bank, which is due to take place in the middle of this year. A majority of Israelis support the withdrawal, and earlier this month Mr Sharon formed a new coalition with the main opposition party, Labour, which is also in favour. But the Israeli leader still faces fierce opposition from the well-organised and vociferous settler movement and its political backers, including many in his own Likud party. There have also been rumblings of discontent in the ranks of the Israeli army.

For the current attempts at bringing peace to the Middle East to succeed, then, Mr Abbas must persuade the militants to hold fire for just long enough to encourage Mr Sharon to make a few more signs of goodwill. This might, in turn, persuade the militants to agree a lasting truce. If this then helps the Israeli leader to overcome his internal opposition and carry out the Gaza withdrawal, the scene will be set for a resumption of formal peace negotiations. There is plenty to hope for. But such hopes could be exploded in an instant, by just one or two well-aimed rockets.

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