Hard talking, hard decisions

Feb 7th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

Condoleezza Rice has visited the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas, ahead of their summit, urging both men to take the “hard decisions” and “difficult choices” needed for lasting peace. The question of Palestinians detained by Israel may be the foremost of several tricky issues on which the summit could make progress—or founder

AN UNDECLARED and imperfect ceasefire in the Gaza strip has now been in place for almost three weeks, bringing relative calm after months of bloodshed. The newly elected president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas, has begun making good on a promise his predecessor, the late Yasser Arafat, failed to keep, deploying the PA’s police to stop militants launching attacks on Israeli targets. Encouraged by this, Israel’s prime minister, Ariel Sharon, has agreed to pull troops out of some West Bank towns and release some Palestinian prisoners.

Thus the scene is set for substantial progress to be made when the two men meet, along with President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and King Abdullah of Jordan, at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Tuesday February 8th. Ahead of the summit, Condoleezza Rice made her first official tour of the region as American secretary of state, urging Mr Sharon to take “hard decisions” and Mr Abbas to make “difficult choices” to achieve a lasting peace.

Middle East peace summits have been held in similarly optimistic mood many times before, only to end in disappointment, anger and renewed fighting. Israeli officials worry that Palestinian militants might try to ensure the summit’s failure by launching attacks—perhaps even trying to assassinate Mr Abbas. Even if no outside influences blow the summit off course, there is a risk that the talks may founder on the issue of the more than 7,000 Palestinians detained by Israel. In December, Israel let out 159 Palestinian prisoners and it has now agreed in principle to release another 900. But the militant groups expect far more to be freed if they are to be persuaded to turn their de facto truce into a permanent ceasefire.

For Mr Sharon, though, it will be politically tough to agree to releasing anyone accused of active involvement in attacks. On Sunday, Israel’s president, Moshe Katsav—who holds the power of pardoning prisoners—said he would refuse to grant early release for any with “blood on their hands”. The same day, to try to avert a bust-up at the summit over the issue, both sides agreed to set up a committee to negotiate which detainees would be let out.

The new, national-unity government that Mr Sharon formed last month brought in the main opposition party, Labour, which is more doveish on such matters. But the Israeli prime minister faces splits on this, as on other issues, within his own Likud party and the security establishment. Among the big guns lined up against him are the finance minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, and the head of Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic-intelligence service), Avi Dichter.

There is also nervousness in the Israeli government that Ms Rice’s visit heralds a change in the Bush administration’s Middle East policy, towards being rather more even-handed. America, along with Israel, had stopped talking to Arafat in 2002 over his failure to curb the militants’ attacks. And last April President George Bush delighted Mr Sharon, and infuriated the Palestinian leadership, by supporting Israel’s aspiration to keep forever some large chunks of the West Bank. However, besides opening direct talks with the new Palestinian leader, Ms Rice called on Mr Sharon’s government to dismantle those Jewish settlements in the West Bank that have been built without its approval. And she said that America would not look kindly on any unilateral Israeli moves that undermine the renewed peace process—such as an attempt to confiscate some Palestinian-owned land in Jerusalem, a move from which Israel backed off last week, perhaps following pressure from Ms Rice.

In June 2003, Mr Bush got Mr Sharon and Mr Abbas (then Arafat’s prime minister) to shake hands on the internationally backed “road map” peace plan, which envisaged the creation of an independent Palestinian state, with provisional borders, by this year. But the tentative truce that came into force shortly after the signing of the road-map plan was blown apart in less than two months, with Palestinian militants resuming their suicide-attacks and the Israeli forces resuming their assassinations of the militant groups’ leaders.

On being re-elected last November, Mr Bush promised to renew his efforts to bring the two sides to a peace settlement and said he hoped to see a Palestinian state by the end of his second term of office, four years from now. To that end, he has pledged $350m of aid to the Palestinians. Ms Rice announced on her visit that a further $40m would be disbursed within 90 days to help create jobs and rebuild infrastructure in the occupied territories. She also announced the appointment of a senior American military officer to head a team monitoring compliance with the road map. (The last such monitoring group was withdrawn in 2003 after three Americans were killed by militants in Gaza.)

Tuesday’s summit may formalise the undeclared cessation of hostilities. With luck, there will be progress on the negotiations to release prisoners and confirmation of the plan for Israeli troops to hand over control of some West Bank towns to the PA’s forces. But even if all goes well, the months ahead will be full of challenges. Mr Sharon’s plan to withdraw all Jewish settlers and Israeli troops from Gaza, due to be carried out this summer, could give the revived peace process a boost, but the settlers and their political backers will fight tooth and nail to stop it. The patience of Israelis will soon wear out if Mr Abbas fails to start disarming the militants. And the militants may stop co-operating with him if he fails to win more concessions from the Israelis, or if he fails to reform the corrupt and deeply inefficient PA bureaucracy. Even if the Sharm el-Sheikh summit ends in smiles and handshakes, it will be no guarantee that the peace process is back on track.

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