A tulip revolution

Mar 24th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

Protesters in Kirgizstan are rising up over a disputed election. Could Ukraine-style people power be coming to one of the least democratic parts of the world? Or might the protests spiral into chaos?

COMPLETE the sequence: rose, orange…tulip? Protesters in Kirgizstan, who have stormed government buildings in the capital, Bishkek, in reaction to disputed parliamentary elections, hope so. In late 2003, a “rose revolution” in one former Soviet republic, Georgia, forced out the president and installed a reformer, Mikhail Saakashvili, in his place. And late last year, after a rigged presidential poll, Ukrainians did much the same, bringing Viktor Yushchenko to power in an “orange revolution”. Now the people of Kirgizstan, where mountain tulips bloom in spring, hope to bring a bit of people power to Central Asia, the least democratic region in all the former Soviet empire.

The first round of Kirgizstan’s balloting, on February 27th, was deeply flawed, according to foreign observers. State-run broadcasters slavishly supported the government. Independent media were harassed—the country’s one independent printing press had its electricity cut days before the poll. Opposition candidates were disqualified for niggling reasons. And vote-buying seems to have been rampant, on both sides. Criticism after the first round saw things improve before the second round, on March 13th, but not much. Just a handful of opposition candidates won seats.

Rather than take it quietly, as have the grumpy losers in Tajikistan’s and Kazakhstan’s recent marred polls, the Kirgiz opposition has taken matters into its own hands. First a crowd seized public buildings in Jalal-abad, in the south. Then opposition supporters took control of Osh, Kirgizstan’s second-biggest city, also in the south—a particularly poor region with a sizeable and irritable Uzbek minority. On Tuesday March 22nd another southern district capital, Batken, fell into the hands of protesters' hands. By Thursday, the protests had spread to other parts of the country, including Bishkek, and the government appeared to be losing its grip on power.

The protesters are demanding the resignation of Askar Akaev, the president. He initially stonewalled, saying that any efforts to bring Ukrainian-style revolution to Kirgizstan could lead to civil war. He then changed tack, announcing that the election commission would look into irregularities in disputed regions. However, the commission responded quickly by declaring the poll valid. On Wednesday, Mr Akaev threw another sop to the protesters by sacking his interior minister and prosecutor-general. But he insisted that he himself would not step down.

His refusal to go led to dramatic scenes in Bishkek, where thousands of protesters gathered on Thursday. Their march began peacefully but turned to insurrection when they were confronted by a smaller, pro-government group carrying sticks and home-made shields. According to Reuters news agency, widespread fighting broke out and opposition supporters stormed the presidential palace after police guarding the building abandoned their posts. Mr Akaev's whereabouts were unknown on Thursday afternoon. His spokesman was said to have resigned earlier in the day.

Unlike their brethren in Ukraine and Georgia, Kirgizstan's protesters have not rallied behind a single national figure or party. This headlessness has made this week’s protests more dangerous. Without direction, they have descended into more chaos and violence than the uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine. Policemen have been beaten and opposition figures say several of their own have been shot and wounded. Gunfire was heard in Bishkek on Thursday.

Leading the way forward or falling behind with the rest?

The tragedy of it is that Kirgizstan used to be seen as an island of democracy in Central Asia. Mr Akaev, a respected physicist, won a tough fight for the presidency in 1990 against a communist party boss. After a popular-election victory in 1991 he introduced multi-party democracy and signed up to an economic-reform plan backed by the International Monetary Fund. But over the 1990s, his government became increasingly intolerant of dissent. Presidential and parliamentary elections, each held in both 1995 and 2000, were criticised by international monitors as less than free and fair. Following unrest in 2002 (after an opposition member of parliament was arrested on petty charges), Mr Akaev promised reforms. But the result was a dodgy referendum that strengthened the presidency and replaced the party-list system with single-member districts for parliamentary polls. This weakened the parties and handed more power to powerful individuals.

Though the country is small and remote, events in Kirgizstan are being watched with interest. Both America and Russia have military bases near Bishkek. America moved heavily into Central Asia for the war in Afghanistan, and the two big powers have eyed each other warily in the region ever since. Many have criticised America for tolerating brutal regimes that help it in the war on terror, notably that of Kirgizstan’s neighbour Uzbekistan. But America’s ambassador in Bishkek, Stephen Young, has been frank in the press and with Mr Akaev about his country’s concerns over the deterioration of democracy in Kirgizstan.

Kirgizstan’s neighbours are also watching closely. Two of the former Soviet Central Asian republics, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are thorough dictatorships. But the other two, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, both have visible opposition activity, despite setbacks in their recent elections. Though they might not rise up Kirgiz-style, opposition leaders in those countries may at least be emboldened by the realisation that the world occasionally pays attention. And should the Kirgiz protesters succeed in driving Mr Akaev from office, or even in forcing a re-run of the parliamentary polls, the “tulip revolution” could bring a bit of hope to this undemocratic corner of the world.

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