The strange death of Liberal Canada?

Canada

Apr 14th 2005 OTTAWA
From The Economist print edition

Allegations of sleaze could topple the government and break up the country

SUDDENLY, an abyss has opened up under Paul Martin's minority Liberal government. Only a few weeks ago, Mr Martin's supporters were looking forward with equanimity to the prospect of the prime minister calling an election some time next year to restore their party to the parliamentary majority it enjoyed for more than a decade until last year. Now, Canada is contemplating the possibility of the Conservative opposition forcing a June poll and going on to form a minority government. In due course, say some alarmed federalists, a new attempt by French-speaking Quebec to secede from Canada would follow.

All this is the result of the explosive turn taken by the Gomery inquiry. This is looking into the abuse of a C$250m ($200m) scheme to promote federalism in Quebec set up by Jean Chrétien, Mr Martin's predecessor, in the wake of the narrow defeat of the last referendum on secession a decade ago. Last week, Jean Brault, a Montreal advertising man, told the inquiry that his agency had received C$23.4m for services that included adding Liberal Party workers to his payroll. He also said he had contributed $1.2m to Liberal funds, much of it in cash in brown envelopes or against fake invoices. In other evidence, the inquiry heard claims that a graphic-design firm headed by Jacques Corriveau, a friend of Mr Chrétien and fundraiser for him, received sub-contracts worth $6.7m through the scheme.

Judge John Gomery's decision to ban publication of Mr Brault's testimony (some of which is contested) was reversed in part after this was posted on an American website. The effect of the ban was merely to draw more attention to the testimony. The damage to the Liberals showed up in an opinion poll by Ipsos-Reid (see chart). Another poll, by EKOS, put the Conservatives even further ahead of the Liberals, at 36% to 25%. In Quebec, it showed Liberal support having collapsed to 18%, with the separatist Bloc Québécois at 48%.

These polls show the Conservatives level or even ahead in Ontario, a Liberal stronghold. That makes an early election attractive to Stephen Harper, the Conservative leader, as well as to the Bloc. If they combine their forces behind a no-confidence motion, they could outvote the Liberals in the House of Commons.

The Liberal ship is already showing signs of sinking. One of the 133 Liberal MPs this week left the party to sit as an independent. Another 33 Liberals defied Mr Martin and voted with the Conservatives to kill a government bill recognising same-sex marriage. Impatient Tories are urging Mr Harper to engineer a snap election. They argue that the best time for a vote would be late June, after a provincial election in British Columbia, a visit by Queen Elizabeth to western Canada—and the end of Judge Gomery's public hearings.

If the polls are right, Mr Harper could expect to win such an election, though the Tories might win only one seat in Quebec. It would be a close-run thing. Mr Martin, to whom no personal blame has attached over the scandal, remains slightly more trusted than Mr Harper. The polls suggest the leftish New Democrats and Greens would attract more disillusioned Liberals than would the Tories. Tellingly, some 85% of respondents told pollsters they want Mr Gomery to finish his work—his report is due in December—before an election.

By then the Liberals may have recovered and Mr Harper's moment might have passed. If he does go for an early election, the big winner could be Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc's leader. Some would expect him to capitalise by leaving federal politics and taking charge of the more powerful Parti Québécois in the province itself. There he could challenge Quebec's clumsy Liberal premier, Jean Charest, and so pose a new threat to Canadian unity. All this is but speculation, but such is the febrile atmosphere in Canada's normally placid capital that it is being taken seriously.

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