Peace talk

Spain and ETA

May 19th 2005 MADRID
From The Economist print edition

The Spanish government is preparing to talk to the Basque terrorists

SPAIN'S Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, set off this week in search of the holy grail of Spanish politics: to negotiate the disbandment of the Basque terrorist group, ETA. And a risky adventure it could prove to be.

The government got the Cortes (parliament) in Madrid to pass a motion supporting “dialogue between the competent authority within the state and whoever decides to give up violence.” The vote was 192-147, with the government winning backing from regional nationalists and other leftist parties. Only the opposition People's Party (PP) voted against, accusing Mr Zapatero of “betraying the dead” and “surrendering parliament”. The PP's leader, Mariano Rajoy, asked Mr Zapatero to spell out the political price that would have to be paid for a deal with ETA.

The motion is explosive, as it runs against the hardline policy adopted by Mr Zapatero's PP predecessor, José María Aznar (though Mr Aznar earlier tried direct negotiations too). It has stirred up an emotive debate centred on victims of ETA terrorism, who plan to stage a protest in Madrid next month. “To reach an agreement with ETA is to humiliate the living and the dead,” said the head of the association representing the victims, Francisco Alcaraz. The future of the 2000 anti-terrorist pact, signed by both main political parties, which has contributed to ETA's present fragility, may now be in doubt.

Although this is the first time a government has sought approval from the Cortes, previous governments have in fact talked to ETA. The Socialist government of Felipe González did so in 1989, as did Mr Aznar in 1999, before ETA ended its 14-month ceasefire, causing him to round on all regional nationalists. Neither lot of talks ended the 30-year conflict that has killed more than 800 people. Almost two-thirds of Spaniards support the opening of talks between Madrid and ETA, if it renounces violence, says a poll by the Opina institute. Mr Zapatero argues that ETA has been weakened by numerous arrests and has not staged a fatal attack in two years, making this a good moment for a peace process.

Arnaldo Otegi, leader of ETA's banned political wing, Batasuna, has recently made vague overtures for peace. Most Basque political parties, still wrangling over forming a regional government after last month's elections, talk also of the existence of favourable conditions for peace. Mr Otegi has said that the Cortes's motion could lead to “a Basque Stormont” (after Ulster's parliament), but that Basques must decide their own future. Mr Zapatero has argued, unconvincingly, that there will be no political price to pay for talks. Officials insist that they have little to offer ETA beyond improving conditions for the several hundred prisoners from the group who are in Spanish and French jails.

A development that boded ill for Mr Zapatero's hopes was the explosion of four small bombs near Basque businesses last weekend. The bombs are thought to have followed non-payment of ETA's extortion money, known as revolutionary tax. Unusually, in a speech some hours later, Mr Zapatero failed to mention the bombings. Angel Acebes, a senior PP member, called the omission “disgraceful”.

The newspaper El País called the talks proposal “a high-risk political initiative”. Javier Pradera, a columnist, argued gloomily that ETA's “opaque decision-making...and irrationality” could mean that it tricks its interlocutors and plays for time. “It would be improbable that an organisation like ETA would be ready to abandon violence without a political price,” he wrote. Yet one top Socialist is confident. Referring to Northern Ireland, he says, “Look at the Good Friday Agreement. It has been a long process. There was even Omagh [a lethal IRA bombing] to contend with.”

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