Who will run, let alone win?

Iran's presidential election

May 26th 2005 TEHRAN
From The Economist print edition

The mullahs' byzantine ways of vetting presidential candidates

TO STAND aside in principled protest against the limitations of Iran's paternalistic semi-democracy, or to accept, in the name of expediency, a helping hand from the paterfamilias himself? That was the choice facing Mostafa Moin, Iran's main reformist candidate in next month's presidential election. Disqualified from standing by the Council of Guardians, a hardline watchdog body, his status as a candidate was restored on May 24th, thanks to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who told the council to revise its decision to bar him and a second, less well-known, reformist. But, as The Economist went to press, the high-minded Mr Moin was still not sure to run.

The reformists' primary goal, ever since the council barred more than 2,000 of them from competing in last year's general election, has been to stave off extinction. But at what cost? Some reform-seeking voters feel that reformist politicians—from Muhammad Khatami, the outgoing president, down—have tainted themselves by compromising with conservatives, and that only by withdrawing from public life can they keep their ideals and integrity intact. If Mr Moin does now run, he may, in fact, become a less attractive candidate.

What has changed since last year's polls, when Mr Khamenei conspicuously failed to have those mass disqualifications reversed, even though Mr Khatami begged him to do so? Perhaps the supreme leader, despite his conservative leanings, wants to deny the reformists an excuse to turn their backs on the system. A boisterous election might generate a strong voter turnout, which would help Iran rebut American taunts that it is totalitarian. Finally, Mr Khamenei may be hoping to clip the wings of the established favourite, his old friend and rival, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

A former president, Mr Rafsanjani was apparently prompted to run by polls suggesting he would win (the same ones put Mr Moin in third place) but he is the most divisive of the eight confirmed candidates. Earlier this month, Mehdi Karrubi, a mildly reformist contender, reminded voters that the Iran of Mr Rafsanjani's last presidency was distinguished by international ostracism, undemocratic politics, corruption and political violence.

The shadow of Iran's nuclear plans, which its government says are peaceful but which outsiders suspect are geared to bombmaking, falls across the campaign. Alone among the confirmed candidates, Mr Moin has suggested Iran might indefinitely extend its suspension of uranium-enrichment activities, but decisions on such strategic matters are not taken by the president but by a powerful coterie around the supreme leader. This week, threatened by their negotiating partners from Britain, France and Germany with referral to the UN Security Council, the Iranians pulled back—temporarily, they say—from a decision to restart some of these activities.

Some European diplomats in Tehran hope that if Mr Rafsanjani becomes president, he will urge Mr Khamenei to acquiesce in an indefinite suspension, in return for trade and other incentives from the EU and America. But Mr Rafsanjani knows from experience the dangers of being outflanked by hardliners: in public, at least, he sounds resolutely in favour of Iran pressing on with its nuclear plans.

Mr Rafsanjani's backers say he is a canny old hand, business-friendly and perhaps able to improve relations with the Americans. But Mr Moin could take votes from him. Enough to help one of four hardline conservative candidates sneak into a run-off if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote? That may be part of the inscrutable Mr Khamenei's calculations.

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