A crucial peace accord under strain

Aug 3rd 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

The death in a helicopter crash of John Garang, Sudan’s southern rebel leader turned vice-president, has sparked unrest in the capital, Khartoum, and put the country’s recently negotiated peace accord under strain

FEW men have managed the transition from guerrilla leader to political leader with as much international acclaim as John Garang, leader—until his death in a helicopter accident this week—of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). For 22 years, he led Sudan’s mainly Christian and animist south in a bloody armed struggle against the country’s Muslim Arab government up north in Khartoum. It was a struggle that finally ended in victory in January when Mr Garang won almost total autonomy for south Sudan in a comprehensive peace agreement, known as the CPA, with the central government in Khartoum. The new political reality was ceremoniously confirmed as recently as July 9th, when Mr Garang was joyfully sworn in as Sudan’s first vice-president in a power-sharing government headed by his old enemy, President Omar al-Bashir. Under the deal, the south is entitled, after six years, to have a referendum that could lead to complete independence—though Mr Garang said he would prefer extreme autonomy.

The CPA was one of the few recent bright spots in a continent still plagued by civil wars, famine and corruption. So Mr Garang’s death shocked not only his own people but has shaken all of East Africa, where he had become a confidant of presidents and a folk-hero to many ordinary people. Worse, many fear that without Mr Garang’s forceful leadership, the whole peace agreement may unravel. That seems to have been avoided for now. But Mr Garang died at a pivotal moment in the creation of a fledgling south Sudanese state. Will it, in the next few weeks, survive the loss of its founder?

Mr Garang died in a Ugandan government helicopter while flying back to south Sudan after meeting Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni. It probably ran out of fuel while looking for an emergency landing spot in bad weather. But until an official investigation definitively rules out foul play, some will suspect he was killed by any one of his numerous enemies. As it is, his death sparked riots on the streets of Khartoum by some of the millions of southerners who live in dreadful conditions on the fringes of the city, waiting to return to their homeland, and who bitterly distrust the Khartoum government. More than 100 people were reported killed there and in several southern Sudanese towns, including Juba, the region’s biggest. On Wednesday August 3rd, amid continuing clashes in central Khartoum, thousands of people were reported to be trying to flee the city.

The immediate roots of the conflict between north and south go back to independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956. The mainly Christian, African south argued that it had little in common with the Muslim, mainly Arab north, and petitioned to secede. That was rejected, so a war for independence started. Mr Garang took over the leadership of the struggle in 1983, and eventually brought the central government to the negotiating table by force.

In the process, some 2m people lost their lives, and millions more were displaced. Mr Garang himself was guilty of his share of brutality, and the SPLM’s armed wing, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, does not have a pretty human-rights record. Mr Garang, partly educated in America, was an autocrat by temperament who took personal control of the SPLM. Many argued that this was just as well, as the fractious movement would otherwise have fallen to pieces long ago, riven by ethnic and political jealousies and rivalries.

Indeed, the main fear in the hours after Mr Garang’s death was that the SPLM’s other commanders would threaten the peace by instantly fighting over the succession. So peacemakers were relieved that within a couple of days the SPLM had confirmed Mr Garang’s deputy, Salva Kiir, as its new leader; he automatically becomes Sudan’s first vice-president too. So far, other rivals, such as Riek Machar and James Wani, have kept quiet.

Mr Kiir says his movement remains wedded to the peace agreement, as does President Bashir. On Wednesday, Mr Kiir had meetings with America's special envoy to Sudan, Roger Winter, and South Africa's foreign minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, at which he also pledged to strive for peace in the western region of Darfur, where government-backed Arab militiamen have been terrorising black Africans for more than two years.

But Mr Kiir takes over at a delicate time. A new constitution is still being negotiated for the south. And he will need all his skills to manage the SPLM, which currently has no constitution, since Mr Garang had recently dissolved its leadership council and its quasi-parliament, the National Liberation Council.

Is Mr Kiir up to the task? Like Mr Garang, he is a Dinka, from southern Sudan’s largest ethnic group, and is widely respected by southerners as a military commander in the bush. On the other hand, he has taken little part in the negotiations, and his relatively low profile means he may lack the charisma to cajole everyone into line as Mr Garang did. He is also a little known to the international donors now risking billions of dollars to try to rebuild Sudan. Everyone involved knows that if he slips up, the hyenas—from within his own ranks, let alone those in Khartoum—are waiting to pounce.

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