Indonesia’s still-deadly Islamists

Oct 3rd 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

Indonesia’s security forces are seeking the organisers of suicide-bombings at three tourist restaurants on the Indonesian island of Bali, almost three years after a far more deadly attack on the resort. Jemaah Islamiah, the Islamist group suspected of these and other attacks, remains deadly despite the arrest of some of its leaders

FOREIGNERS were the target but most casualties were locals. The three suicide-bombers who walked into restaurants on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on the evening of Saturday October 1st, carrying bombs packed with ball-bearings, nails and glass, clearly aimed to kill and maim large numbers of tourists. By Monday the number of casualties was still unclear—perhaps 22 dead and 90 injured. However, most were known to be Indonesians, though several Australians and one Japanese man are also reported dead or missing.

The bombings were almost certainly the work of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), an Islamist terror group with a presence across South-East Asia. Unlike al-Qaeda, with which it has links, JI does not normally admit responsibility for its attacks, though it is known to have been behind the much larger bombings in Bali in October 2002, which killed 202 people, mostly foreign tourists, as well as other attacks across Indonesia.

Since the 2002 Bali bombings, a number of leading figures in JI have been arrested, including Riduan Isamuddin, also known as Hambali, who was thought to be the group’s operational leader and its link to al-Qaeda. He was held in Thailand in August 2003 and handed over to America for interrogation. Shortly after this, Abu Bakar Basyir, a radical Indonesian cleric suspected of being the group’s spiritual leader, was sentenced to four years’ prison for subversion by a court in Indonesia—though there was insufficient evidence to convict him on charges of terrorism.

Some security experts hope JI has been badly weakened by the clampdowns on its operations—for instance there has not been much sign of its activities in Malaysia, Singapore or Thailand in the past couple of years, though it may still have some links with militants in the southern Philippines.

However, several of the group’s suspected ringleaders remain at large. They include Azahari bin Husin, a physicist who is said to be an expert bomb-maker, and Noordin Muhammad Top, who is believed to oversee recruitment. Though the two are Malaysians, it is thought that sympathisers in Indonesia are sheltering them. Even if JI's network has been disrupted, they may be using personal contacts to orchestrate attacks. A third suspected JI leader reportedly being sought is Aris Sumarsono, also known as Zulkarnaen, who may have taken over Hambali’s former leadership role.

The task now for the Indonesian authorities is to identify the suicide-bombers who carried out Saturday’s attacks and thereby to trace those who helped them organise the bombings. The gruesome finding of the three bombers’ severed heads may help in this: pictures of the heads have been published in Indonesian media in the hope that they will be recognised. A tourist with a video camera happened to be filming at one of the restaurants when the bomber, a man in a black shirt and jeans, apparently carrying something on his back, calmly walked in and exploded. Indonesian detectives say accomplices may have detonated the bombs remotely using mobile phones—in which case, such video and photographic evidence may help spot them.

The head of Australia’s federal police, Mick Keelty, whose officers are questioning Australians arriving home after being caught up in the blast, said he would be investigating reports that staff at some hotels on Bali had told guests to stay indoors on Friday and Saturday nights because of rumours that an attack was imminent. Of course, the hotel staff may simply have drawn the logical conclusion that an attack was much more likely around the anniversary of the 2002 bombings.

The Bali attack of three years ago was followed by a number of other attacks clearly aimed at foreign targets. These included a bomb set off outside the Marriott hotel in Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in August 2003, which killed 12 people; and an explosion near Australia’s embassy in the city, which killed at least three people. These attacks have prompted a tightening of security at hotels frequented by foreign visitors but security at beach-side restaurants, like those attacked on Saturday, remains minimal.

The supposed principal aim of JI is to establish an Islamic state across South-East Asia, though this does not explain why its attacks have mainly been targeted at foreigners and foreign interests rather than at the region’s governments and institutions. Like other regional leaders, Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono insists that no effort will be spared to fight the group. And indeed, co-operation between the authorities in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and the Philippines has improved since the 2002 attacks.

That said, there was some disappointment at the relatively light sentence handed down to Mr Basyir. In part this seemed to be due to inadequacies in the prosecution’s presentation of the terrorism charges of which he was eventually acquitted. But America’s refusal to allow Hambali and other key suspects it is holding to provide testimony may also have contributed to the outcome. By contrast, Singapore and Malaysia allowed detainees to testify by video-link.

Furthermore, despite the improved co-operation between Indonesia’s national authorities and their regional counterparts, tracking down and arresting members of JI cells often falls to under-resourced local police in remote rural parts of Indonesia, who may not be up to the job. JI is likely to have sympathisers in such places as militant Islamic boarding schools, though the government may be reluctant to crack down too harshly on these for fear of provoking the country’s influential Islamic lobby.

If damaging the Indonesian economy was among the Bali bombers’ aims, they seem unlikely to have much success. Though hundreds of Australian tourists have returned home from the resort on special flights, many more appear to be staying put. David Burton, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund, predicted on Monday that the bombings should have only a slight economic effect. Tourism provides only around 5% of Indonesia’s national income and the previous bombings did not have much economic impact, he noted. Rising fuel prices—which have led to street protests in recent days—are more of a threat to Indonesia’s hopes of another year of strong economic growth.

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