Death throes

Canada

Nov 17th 2005 OTTAWA
From The Economist print edition

Heading for a wintry election

FOR the past fortnight, the only question that seemed to matter in Canada's federal politics was whether the voters should be asked to cast judgment on the ailing Liberal minority government in January or a few weeks later. The opposition wants an election as soon as possible, to capitalise on a damning report into government sleaze. Paul Martin, the prime minister, has promised a vote by April, hoping that by then Canadians will savour his government's economic giveaways—including C$39 billion ($33 billion) in tax cuts and extra spending over the next five years announced on November 14th. But the opposition parties seem likely to get their way. They plan to table a no-confidence motion which would see the government fall by the end of the month, and an election by January 16th at the latest.

The sleaze report, by Justice John Gomery, criticised the corrupt mismanagement of a C$250m “sponsorship” scheme set up by Mr Martin's Liberal predecessor, Jean Chrétien, to promote federalism in Quebec. It prompted Jack Layton, the leader of the New Democrats, to withdraw the support of his 18 MPs for the government. The Liberals, now bereft of allies, hold just 133 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, and thus look doomed to lose a confidence vote.

The opposition's hesitation has been over timing. Mr Layton is reluctant to abort a meeting due later this month between Mr Martin and leaders of First Nations (as Canadians call Indians and Inuit). Stephen Harper, the Conservative leader, does not want to thwart Mr Martin's tax cuts. Both parties support passage of measures to help poor families pay heating bills and members of bankrupt company pension schemes. So they may wait until November 24th to table the confidence motion.

Even so, the election is a gamble for the opposition. Canadians may not take kindly to having their Christmas sandwiched by campaigning. Mr Martin refused to collaborate with Mr Layton's initial plan to move a motion requesting the government to dissolve parliament after the Christmas break on January 4th. Parliamentary rules, and the Liberals' long experience of using them, might just allow the government to cling on. But that now looks unlikely.

In what seemed the first shot in the election campaign, Ralph Goodale, the finance minister, this week turned a statement on the economic outlook into a mini-budget. He unveiled plans for cuts in income and corporate tax totalling C$29 billion (though most would not take effect till 2010), and extra spending on training and higher education. These measures, aimed at raising productivity, steal some of the Conservatives' policy clothes.

One opinion poll briefly placed the Conservatives ahead after the Gomery report. Now the polls suggest that a new election would once again return a minority Liberal administration. The Conservatives will have to raise their game if they want to turf Mr Martin out.

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