A milestone, perhaps, for Liberia and Africa

Nov 11th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf is claiming victory in Liberia's presidential election and looks set to become the first elected female leader in Africa. Her opponent in the run-off, George Weah, has cried foul but is unlikely to succeed in getting the result overturned. The new leader will have to reverse almost three decades of decline, mismanagement and civil war

FOR the second time in a month, Liberians have gone to the polls to decide who their 23rd president will be. In October’s first round, voters eliminated all but two of the 22 contestants; this week they made their final choice. On Friday November 11th, with 91% of the votes counted, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf held a seemingly unassailable lead, with 59% compared with 41% for her rival, George Weah. After declaring victory, Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf said she felt “humbled” on being chosen to “lead the effort of reconciliation and development”. She told Reuters news agency she hoped her win—the first presidential-election victory for a woman in Africa—would raise the profile of women across the continent. And she invited Mr Weah to join her government, after “getting over his disappointment”.

But the loser is not merely disappointed. He is angry, alleging fraud and insisting that the Supreme Court stop the counting of votes and that Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf be prevented from taking office until his complaint has been investigated. On Friday afternoon, hundreds of his supporters demonstrated against the result in Monrovia, the capital, throwing stones at police and chanting “No Weah, no peace”. But when Mr Weah addressed the crowd, he urged against violence. “You chose me because I am a peace ambassador,” he said. “You have a case. While we are looking into the case we want you to remain calm. The streets of Monrovia do not belong to demonstrators.”

With those scrutinising the election saying they found no widespread evidence of vote-rigging, there would seem to be little chance of the result being reversed. The head of the observer mission from a group of West African states, E.M. Debrah, said the signs were that the election had been generally free, fair and transparent. Some irregularities were reported but diplomats said they were not big enough to affect the final outcome. The voting process was largely peaceful, testimony to Liberians’ evident desire finally to put decades of political violence behind them. This is the country’s first presidential election after a decade and a half of civil war.

The two candidates in the run-off could not have been more different. Mr Weah, who got most votes in the first round, is a former footballer, and the most famous person in Liberia. He was born in a poor suburb of Monrovia, but became a star at European clubs such as Chelsea and AC Milan. His supporters campaigned for him on the slogan: “He know book, he know no book, I'll vote for him.” Their complaint was that it was the educated who had led Liberia into its current mess; their hope was that Mr Weah, with no formal education but untainted by violence or corruption, would lead them out of it.

By contrast, the older Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf—known among Liberians as the “Iron Lady”—is a seasoned politician, a former finance minister who has worked for the World Bank and the United Nations. She had the vote of those who want Liberia’s international credibility restored; her backers say she will bring much-needed aid and investment.

Assuming that Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf is confirmed as president, she will have to reverse almost three decades of decline, mismanagement and civil war, which has left Liberians poorer than almost anyone else on the planet. Public utilities ceased to function in the 1990s; most people have no running water, electricity, sanitation, decent education or health care. The government is running on a budget of just $80m.

Corruption is on the lips of everyone. Any new government will need to tackle graft and cronyism. Fortunately, it will find itself bound by the Governance and Economic Management Assistance Programme (Gemap), which was endorsed by the outgoing transitional government. The aim is to make public finance more open; international experts are to monitor the government's fiscal performance for the next three years.

Gemap’s signing could have touched off debates about national sovereignty, a sensitive issue in Liberia. But in such dire circumstances, neither ordinary Liberians nor international donors object to outside management. Max van den Berg, head of the European Union’s election observers, who is also a vice-president of the European Parliament's development committee, says Gemap is absolutely necessary to attract the investment that Liberia needs. But, he says, “you will need people who are committed to carry it out.”

Such people may be more likely to be found in Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf's camp than in Mr Weah's. The former footballer has let a lot of dodgy figures, including cronies of a dreadful former president, Charles Taylor, now in exile in Nigeria, into his court. This made many Liberians doubt whether a government under his command would stay sufficiently clean.

What happens in Liberia affects its neighbours. Since civil war started in 1989, it has exported mayhem and refugees, with devastating results in Sierra Leone, Guinea's Forest province and Côte d'Ivoire, which is now cut in half by civil strife. Liberia has also been a haven for all manner of hustlers, gangsters and terrorists.

Alan Doss, the United Nations’ special envoy to Liberia, is worried. “The Côte d'Ivoire conflict spilling over means we will have to deal, yet again, with the problems of refugees and the recruitment of fighters for that conflict,” he says. Added to that, Guinea is imploding and Sierra Leone is becoming unstable again as well. Perhaps, if it can resolve the squabble over its election result peacefully and it gets a new president to set new standards of accountability, Liberia may start exporting something good.

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