Shifting sands

Saudi Arabia

Feb 10th 2005 RIYADH
From The Economist print edition

The first shoots of controlled democracy are visible but still tiny

SOMETHING looks different about the Saudi capital. Perhaps it is the presence of random checkpoints and armed guards, a response to a two-year wave of terror attacks. Or maybe it is the sight of giant billboards featuring the faces of aspiring politicians. The election ads are especially unusual, and not only as an exuberant first inkling of democratisation in this absolute autocracy. Before last month, the country's religious police would have considered such publicly displayed images of the human face to be unIslamic “idols” that should be blotted out. They could be right: one candidate reports that a lady who liked his picture has been pestering him to take her on as a second wife.

Whatever the case, change is certainly in the air in Riyadh, a city of walls and veils. To many Saudis, it is change for the better, after a long drought. Take this week's elections. Like many Saudi reforms, it is easy to dismiss them as shallow. They are for only half the seats on town councils. Half the potential electorate—women—are not invited. Only a third of eligible men have registered to vote in the capital. So it is a sort of democracy—with king-sized training wheels.

Yet the Saudi public, sceptical at first, appears increasingly enthusiastic. Nearly 700 candidates are competing for just seven open seats in Riyadh, where the first of a series of staggered elections is taking place, through until late-April. The campaigns have quickly taken on a uniquely Saudi style. Many candidates have pitched bedouin-style tents; places to show hospitality, inform constituents, and entertain them with everything from rousing sermons by famous preachers to stockmarket tips. Others have gone high tech, posting websites and blitzing the city's mobile phones with text messages. The costliest campaigns are said to have swallowed upwards of a million dollars.

While most candidates promise traditional things, such as better rubbish collection and safer streets, others represent deeper political trends. One text message making the rounds suggests that the truly pious ought to vote for certain candidates. Liberals are fighting back, with one contestant, for instance, running on a platform of demanding the right for women to drive cars and, of course, to vote.

“What gives me most satisfaction”, says Prince Mansour bin Mitaab, a professor with the job of organising the polls, “is that we now have Saudis in every town and province who know how to manage an election.” The kingdom now has a system and a precedent for practising democracy.
The political spectacle is not the only thing boosting Saudi morale. Since the first big bombing in May 2003, more than 200 people have lost their lives to terrorism inside the kingdom. As recently as December, al-Qaeda cells attacked the American consulate in Jeddah. Yet the consensus now is that the government has gained the upper hand. The much-reduced western expatriate community is still fearful. But the slow-moving Saudi government has at last mobilised a massive and apparently effective campaign to stem the scourge.

Stringent security, including the arrest or killing of some 400-500 suspects, is only part of this. Other aspects include strict financial controls on Islamic charities, a ceaseless barrage of anti-extremist propaganda, and stark warnings to preachers to tone down the vitriol.

The Saudis have another reason to feel more confident. They are flush with cash. Three years ago the economy staggered under low oil prices, soaring joblessness and domestic debt. The past two years have steered it past such shoals. “Last year was simply the best in Saudi history,” says Brad Bourland, the top economist at SAMBA, a big Saudi bank. Stock prices surged 86%. Oil exports rose by $30 billion.

Of course, all is not entirely well. The country's social and political mores remain stifling, especially for women. The official, Wahhabist religious establishment condemns terrorists not on the grounds that their hatred for infidels is wrong but because they have disobeyed their “rightful commanders” who grant those infidels protection inside the kingdom. Dissidents risk being jailed, fired from their jobs, or banned from travel. Reform is much discussed, it is true, and piecemeal action is taken. But as a long-time foreign resident remarks, “They talk the talk, but they walk the walk with an arthritic shuffle.”

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