Vote early, vote often

The European Union constitution

Feb 24th 2005 BRUSSELS
From The Economist print edition

Spain says yes, but much tougher referendums lie ahead

THE race to ratify the European Union constitution is like a steeplechase in which the hurdles become progressively higher and more intimidating. All 25 EU countries must ratify the constitutional treaty for it to come into effect. Most will do it by parliamentary vote (three have already done so); but no fewer than ten have pledged to consult their voters direct. On February 20th the treaty cleared its first and lowest referendum hurdle, when the fiercely pro-European Spanish voted in favour by 77%. Naysayers pointed to the low turnout of only 42%. But it could be argued that it was a surprise so many Spaniards were prepared to take part in a vote which was a foregone conclusion.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president who chaired the convention that drafted the constitution, said the Spaniards had “shown the way to the other peoples of Europe.” French politicians must certainly be praying that their own people follow the Spanish lead. President Jacques Chirac is showing signs of alarm as the polls narrow. Since September, when a CSA poll showed 69% for the constitution and 31% against, the gap has narrowed to 60:40 (see chart). Everybody recalls a similar narrowing before the vote on the Maastricht treaty in 1992, which eventually squeaked past by 51:49. The government first talked of having the referendum in the autumn, then moved it to before the summer, and now seems poised to hold it in May. Most analysts see this acceleration of the timetable as a bid to stop the no campaign gaining steam as it capitalises on a variety of sentiments, from the unpopularity of the government to hostility to Turkish entry into the EU.

It is widely held that a French no would kill the constitution outright. But even if the French vote in favour, the constitution's partisans will not be able to relax. The Dutch have announced that they will vote on June 1st. Like France, the Netherlands would once have been regarded as reliably pro-European. Both countries were founder members of the European project. But the Dutch are also now showing signs of Euroscepticism, not least because they contribute more per head to the EU budget than anyone else. It is no coincidence that the Dutch government is scheduling the vote just before an EU summit that is supposed to be discussing the EU's future finances.

Even if the constitution clears these French and Dutch hurdles, larger and still more daunting barriers lie ahead. Among them are Poland, where any referendum would be invalid if turnout were below 50%; the Czechs, whose president is “100% against” the constitution; the Danes and Irish, each of whom has rejected a European treaty in the past; and, probably last in the queue, the most Eurosceptic country of all, Britain, which may not vote until the spring or summer of 2006.

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