Managing unrest

China and Japan

Apr 21st 2005 BEIJING AND TOKYO
From The Economist print edition

Protests against Japan cause official unease in China

CHINA'S leaders are at last showing some disapproval of the anti-Japanese protesters who have staged large, sometimes violent, demonstrations in a dozen cities over the past three weekends. But the biggest outpouring of xenophobic unrest in China for more than six years looks likely to rumble on. If so, further damage will be done not only to China's relations with Japan, but also to its efforts to convince its neighbours that its economic rise poses no threat to their security.

A visit to China this week by Japan's foreign minister, Nobutaka Machimura, failed to produce any obvious agreement on how to end the unrest. China refused Japan's request for an apology for damage to Japanese property during the protests, even though Chinese police have done little to stop protesters from throwing stones and other projectiles at Japan's diplomatic missions. A meeting between China's president, Hu Jintao, and Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister, could take place at an Asia-Africa summit in Indonesia this week. But as Mr Hu flew to Jakarta on Wednesday, there was no official word that such a meeting had been planned.

For the first time, however, China has indicated that it wants the demonstrations to stop. On April 19th the foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, called on citizens to "express their feelings in a lawful and orderly way" and not to take part in "unapproved demonstrations or activities that may affect social stability." By China's standards, these were mild warnings. There was neither mention of what might happen to violators, nor any threat of action against participants in the unauthorised protests that have already taken place. Other Chinese officials meanwhile continued to blame Japan for the unrest.

China's leaders are probably uneasy, nonetheless, about the impact the protests are having on their country's image, as well as about the risk that the crowds could turn on the government if their protests are harshly suppressed. The failure of protests to materialise in Beijing last weekend, despite calls for them circulated on the internet, will have been a comfort. This followed a warning from the capital city's police that unauthorised protests would be treated as illegal.

But a similar warning in Shanghai failed to deter tens of thousands of people from taking to the city's streets on April 16th, chanting "Japanese pigs get out" and "Kill the Japanese" as they marched on the Japanese consulate and pelted it with stones. The next day, thousands protested in several other cities, including Shenyang in the north-east, Shenzhen on the border with Hong Kong and Hong Kong itself. Nationalists have called for more protests during the coming week-long May Day holiday, especially on May 4th, the anniversary of anti-Japan protests in 1919.

If this agitation has worried China's leaders, they have shown no inclination to address its cause by instructing the government-controlled media to present Japan's position more objectively. The protests have been inspired mainly by Japan's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council, and the Japanese Education Ministry's approval of school textbooks that play down Japan's atrocities in China in the 1930s and 1940s. Chinese media have failed to highlight that only a handful of schools would use the most egregious textbook and that Japan has apologised numerous times for its wartime behaviour. Mr Koizumi's ill-judged visits to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, where some war criminals are among those honoured, have been highlighted. But there has been little mention of the tens of billions of dollars in aid Japan has given to China in the past two decades.

The protests could have a significant impact on tourism between Japan and China during the May Day holiday, which coincides with Japan's Golden Week. For Japanese and Chinese, this is a popular time for travel. Thousands of Japanese have cancelled plans to visit China. Bookings by Chinese for trips to Japan (where the protests in China have prompted threats to Chinese diplomatic missions, but otherwise elicited a calm response) are also unusually few for the coming holiday.

Japanese businesspeople, whose factories in China employ some 1m Chinese, worry about calls by Chinese activists for a boycott of Japanese goods. There has been no indication so far of any major boycott. But at the weekend, hundreds of Chinese workers at factories run by Taiyo Yuden, a Japanese electronic parts company, went on strike in the city of Dongguan, near Shenzhen. Though related to the anti-Japanese protests, the strike was also triggered by complaints over pay. Given that much Japanese manufacturing in China is geared towards markets outside China, such disruption arouses far greater concerns than a possible decline in Chinese demand. Tokyo's Nikkei index fell nearly 4% on April 18th to a four-month low. Although this reflected other economic factors, the protests in China played a part.

This week a Chinese deputy foreign minister, Wu Dawei, said his country's ties with Japan were at their worst since the rivals established diplomatic relations in 1972. Another Chinese official said that what China considers Japan's meddling in the Taiwan issue was also aggravating tensions, and could be "very dangerous".

The Asia-Africa summit in Indonesia is intended to display friendship among Asian and African countries which took part in the Bandung Conference in Indonesia 50 years ago, leading to the non-aligned movement. But between the biggest powers attending, little love will be lost.

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