Uribe's court win

Colombia

Oct 20th 2005 BOGOTÁ
From The Economist print edition

A second term edges closer

FOR months, only one question has mattered in Colombian politics. Would the Constitutional Court uphold an amendment to the constitution to allow a president to stand for a second term? On October 19th the court finally said yes. That opens the way for Álvaro Uribe to stand in and—almost certainly—win next May's presidential election. But first he must surmount one last legal hurdle: the court said that it would rule by November 11th on the validity of a reform of the electoral code which fixes rules for the candidacy of an incumbent president.

The court's judgment, though not unexpected, was a big victory for Mr Uribe. His tough security policy, in a country long plagued by violence from left-wing guerrillas, rightist vigilantes and drug-traffickers, has made him wildly popular. Polls suggest that he would win the election outright, with some 55% of the vote.

The justices rejected, firmly but not unanimously, 18 different challenges to the re-election amendment approved by Congress last year. Now they will study challenges to the Law of Electoral Guarantees, intended to ensure that opponents are not disadvantaged. If they throw the law out, Mr Uribe would not be able to stand until 2010. If they require amendments, there might not be time to approve these before the election. But the betting is that they will approve this law too.

It is a paradox of Colombia that the most lawless country of the Americas is also intensely legalistic, with a deep-rooted mistrust of executive power. The court ruling “radically changes Colombian politics”, said César Gaviria, the president from 1990-94 and now the head of the Liberal opposition to Mr Uribe. Mr Gaviria, who insists he will not himself stand next year, is not alone in worrying that incumbents will have unfair access to state resources. But all the opposition candidates said they accepted the court's ruling. Mr Uribe's lieutenants will now concentrate on winning a majority in the new Congress, to be elected in March, halting a recent exodus of the president's former supporters to other parties.

Mr Uribe has been an effective president, beating back the FARC guerrillas, negotiating (on controversial terms) the demobilisation of the vigilantes, and restoring economic confidence. An obsessive micro-manager, he has led from the front. Arguably, Colombia would be better served by the institutionalisation of his policies, rather than the continuation of his rule. Elsewhere in Latin America, second terms have often disappointed. Now Mr Uribe is close to having the chance to try to buck that trend. Most Colombians will be pleased at that prospect.

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