The aftermath

France

Nov 17th 2005 PARIS
From The Economist print edition

Questions about French society after the recent orgy of rioting

ONE measure of the ambient violence is that the French government this week welcomed the burning of 215 cars in one night as “a near-normal situation”. At the peak of the recent riots, over 1,400 vehicles were torched in a single night. A week after the government declared a state of emergency, the Paris suburbs were mostly quiet—although sporadic arson attacks, including on nursery schools, continued elsewhere. The government has rushed through a law prolonging the state of emergency for three months.

As France picks itself up after the riots, hard questions are being asked. Nobody can agree on the riots' underlying causes, which include joblessness, segregation, hard-line policing, discrimination, drug mafias and a lack of parental control—especially, according to one outspoken minister, in polygamous families. But all recognise that something must change. Even President Jacques Chirac, invisible during most of the rioting, acknowledged on television this week that there was a “profound malaise” in France.

In response, a mix of sticks and carrots is now on the table. The state of emergency gives the police powers to arrest and detain suspects, with prison sentences for minors who violate local curfews, few of which have in fact been imposed. Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister and head of the ruling UMP party, plans to expel foreigners found guilty of rioting; ten such expulsion orders are under way.

As for carrots, Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, is working on a plan banlieue. One idea, says Thierry Breton, the finance minister, is “to restore economic activity to the suburbs so that they do not become dormitory zones”. Measures to lure businesses to certain areas through tax incentives, in return for obligations to hire locally, will be expanded. Another element, says Gérard Larcher, the jobs minister, will be vocational training for 14-year-olds, to discourage school drop-outs. A voluntary civilian service will be set up for 50,000 school-leavers a year, starting in 2007. Almost all of this, insists Mr Breton, can be financed from existing budgets.

More vexing is a broader question: how can France alter its self-image to reflect its non-white citizens? Officially, the egalitarian, colour-blind republic embraces all. But the reality of segregation and discrimination, especially against those of north and west African origin, has exposed this model's limits. For the first time, there is now a vigorous debate about representation, symbols and role models. In this respect, indeed, the riots could prove to be a turning-point.

Usually, politicians on the left and right dismiss calls for more ethnic representation—on television, in debating chambers, in the police or in boardrooms—as a dangerous step towards multiculturalism. Few distinguish between a system of quotas and a voluntary approach that relies on peer pressure and self-interest. This week, however, Mr Chirac spoke of the need to recognise “the diversity of French society”, adding that companies, unions, political parties and the media should “better reflect the reality of today's France.”

Symbolically, this is a big change. How such intentions are put into practice is another matter. The government rejects quotas. But it does want to encourage a voluntary approach. The (private) Institut d'Etudes Politiques (Sciences-Po) in Paris, and ESSEC, a top (also private) business school, both run schemes to recruit bright pupils from poor areas, many of them non-white. Yet many questions remain, not least the refusal to let employers record their progress with race-based statistics.

Will any of this help to rescue the government's reputation? Despite its failures over the riots, the answer may be yes. As Dominique Reynié, a political scientist at Sciences-Po, puts it: “when the French are fearful, they swing to the right. It happened after 1968. Logically, it will happen in the run-up to 2007.” Insecurity is likely to dominate ahead of the elections that year. An Ipsos poll this week showed a jump in the approval ratings of both Mr Sarkozy and Mr de Villepin.

It is not only the centre-right that may gain, however. Jean-Marie Le Pen, of the far-right National Front, studiously silent during the worst of the riots, now claims to be the only politician to have foreseen the trouble. “Immigration, explosion of the suburbs: Le Pen said so!” boasts his latest poster. Fears of insecurity and immigration play to the National Front's strength.

Yet Mr Le Pen is not the only politician talking tough. Mr Sarkozy's expulsion orders and his use of the term racaille (scum) to describe the rioters have increased his appeal to the authoritarian right. “A majority of National Front voters are volatile, and could vote for Sarkozy,” says one of his advisers. The battle promises to be as fierce between the right and the far right, as between the traditional right and left.

Copyright © 2005 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.